xly / What works on XLY
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on XLY, measured on daily bars (2024-08-29 → 2026-08-28, 501 bars, 323 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
What works on XLY
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 80.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 5 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 66.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 3 |
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 37.5% | 50.0% | 87.5% | 8 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 33.3% | 60.0% | 78.6% | 15 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 62.1% | 51.7% | 75.0% | 30 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 50.0% | 52.4% | 75.0% | 22 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 54.5% | 50.0% | 70.4% | 34 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 50.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | 10 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 76.9% | 61.5% | 46.2% | 13 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 55.6% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 18 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 37.0% | 34.6% | 40.0% | 27 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 50.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 6 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 55.6% | 22.2% | 33.3% | 9 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 42.9% | 42.9% | 28.6% | 7 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 62.5% | 37.5% | 25.0% | 8 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 27.3% | 33.3% | 35.7% | 33 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 35.9% | 32.4% | 31.4% | 39 |
| MFI cross 80SELL | 66.7% | 50.0% | 16.7% | 6 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 36.4% | 38.1% | 26.3% | 22 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 3 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=XLY. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: Squeeze fire (bullish) · ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong) · SMA 50/200 golden cross.
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.