signals / SMA 50/200 death cross
SMA 50/200 death cross is a short-side study. Fires when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA (death cross).
Quiet day for this theme
Today is quiet for SMA 50/200 death cross — no study-grade (n≥10) firings among 30 mega-cap names in the last 5 daily bars. That is today's scan result, not a forecast, and not a LONG/SHORT call. Historical context and other themes that did fire are below — not invented firings for this theme.
Historical context on tracked names
Same rank engine as /t/spy. These are HIST hit rates on the tracked sample, not today's firings. Study-grade rows (n≥10) first; n<10 anecdotes are folded below.
No study-grade (n≥10) HIST rows on the tracked sample. Thin samples (n<10) are folded below — they are not headline hit rates.
Anecdotes (n<10) — not headline hit rates
These rows have fewer than 10 measurable 1-month firings. A 100% win on n=1 is not a claim.
| Symbol | Rule | Last date | Win / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | SMA 50/200 death crossSHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 100.0% · n=1 |
| IWM | SMA 50/200 death crossSHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 0.0% · n=1 |
| AAPL | SMA 50/200 death crossSHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 0.0% · n=1 |
| TSLA | SMA 50/200 death crossSHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 0.0% · n=2 |
Themes firing today — Golden cross · MACD bullish · RSI overbought · Death cross.
Rules firing today — EMA 9/21 golden cross · Williams %R cross -80 · CCI cross 100 · CCI cross -100.
Also study — SPY technicals · Most mega-caps closed above SMA200 as of 2026-10-12. · full firing scan.
FAQ
What is SMA 50/200 death cross?
SMA 50/200 death cross is a short-side study. Fires when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA (death cross).
Which names are firing it?
None of the mega-cap names fired this rule in the last 5 daily bars.
What is the sample?
Hit rates use the same rank engine as /t/spy on a fixed sample (SPY, SPX, QQQ, IWM, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA). 4 of those names have a measurable history for this rule. Windows are 5 days, 1 month and 3 months on daily bars. Last bar in sample: 2026-10-12. Method: /methodology. Caveats: /help.
Why is today quiet for this study?
No study-grade (n≥10) mega-cap firings for SMA 50/200 death cross in the last 5 daily bars. Historical context on tracked names and other rules that did fire are in the quiet-day study pack — not invented firings. See SPY technicals, /breadth, and /firing.
What does SMA 50/200 death cross measure?
Fires when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA (the conventional death cross). Underlying math: see How it works on this page. Catalog line: Fires when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA (death cross).
What does a firing mean?
A firing is the daily bar where this rule’s condition becomes true (a cross or a flip). It is a study event, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Forward windows on this site are close-to-close with no costs. Study side is short-side (SHORT). A positive forward return is a decline in the close after the print (side-adjusted) — a scoring convention, not a recommendation to sell short. Method: /methodology.
Why can the sample be small?
Hit rates need enough dated prints with a completed forward window. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence — the same caveat as /help. Slow rules (especially 50/200 SMA crosses) often have single-digit counts on a two-year tape. We do not invent a hit rate when the count is missing. Names in this sample with a measurable history include MSFT · IWM · AAPL · TSLA.
How it works
Two simple moving averages of the daily close: SMA 50 and SMA 200 (rolling means). The classic golden / death cross is the 50/200 cross of those averages, not price versus the 200-day.
Fires when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA (the conventional death cross).
Definition comes from the rank-rule catalog and the indicator defaults in this repo. Slug sma-50-200-death-cross is listed on /api/meta.
How to read it
Study side is short-side (labeled SHORT on firing chips). A positive forward return on this page is a decline in the close after the print (side-adjusted). That is how the event is scored — not a recommendation to sell short. A 50/200 SMA cross is a slow event. On a two-year daily tape many names have very few prints — sometimes one or none. When the count is below 10, the hit rate on this page is anecdote. That is expected for this family, not a data bug.
Scoring on this site is shared across every rule (5-day / 1-month / 3-month close-to-close windows, side-adjusted). See How it is scored here below. Names in the tracked sample with a measurable history include MSFT · IWM · AAPL · TSLA. Those figures are the same rows as the hit-rate table below — not a second ranking. Historical hit rates, not a prediction / not trade advice.
When it fails
- Two years of daily bars often yield a single-digit count — treat those hit rates as anecdote.
- The cross is late by construction (200-day average).
- A golden or death cross is a textbook label, not evidence the next quarter is settled.
- Past ≠ future. A historical hit rate is not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
- Overlap bias. Clustered prints can credit the same later move more than once.
Same caveats as the rest of the site: /methodology · /help.
How it is scored here
On this site every rule is scored the same way: run it over about two years of daily bars, record each firing, and measure what the name did 5 days, 1 month and 3 months later. Sell signals are measured as shorts, so a positive return is a profitable short (side-adjusted). The composite score is 0.6 × average return + 0.4 × (win rate − 50), with longer horizons weighted more. Nothing here is a forecast.
Full catalog: /signals. Method: /methodology. Slug sma-50-200-death-cross is stable and listed on /api/meta.
Same family: SMA 50/200 golden cross
Firing now (mega-caps, last 5 bars)
| Symbol | Last date | Win 1mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| None of the mega-cap names fired this rule in the last 5 daily bars. | |||
Hit rates on tracked names
Same rank engine as /t/spy, /t/nvda, and /t/spx, restricted to this rule.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.