signals / MACD bearish cross
MACD bearish cross is a short-side study. Fires when the MACD line crosses below its signal line.
FAQ
What is MACD bearish cross?
MACD bearish cross is a short-side study. Fires when the MACD line crosses below its signal line.
What is the sample?
Hit rates use the same rank engine as /t/spy on a fixed sample (SPY, SPX, QQQ, IWM, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA). 8 of those names have a measurable history for this rule. Windows are 5 days, 1 month and 3 months on daily bars. Last bar in sample: 2026-10-12. Method: /methodology. Caveats: /help.
What does MACD bearish cross measure?
Fires when the MACD line crosses below its 9-period signal line. Underlying math: see How it works on this page. Catalog line: Fires when the MACD line crosses below its signal line.
What does a firing mean?
A firing is the daily bar where this rule’s condition becomes true (a cross or a flip). It is a study event, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Forward windows on this site are close-to-close with no costs. Study side is short-side (SHORT). A positive forward return is a decline in the close after the print (side-adjusted) — a scoring convention, not a recommendation to sell short. Method: /methodology.
Why can the sample be small?
Hit rates need enough dated prints with a completed forward window. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence — the same caveat as /help. Slow rules (especially 50/200 SMA crosses) often have single-digit counts on a two-year tape. We do not invent a hit rate when the count is missing. Names in this sample with a measurable history include MSFT · TSLA · AAPL · NVDA.
How it works
MACD line is EMA(12) − EMA(26) of the daily close; the signal line is an EMA(9) of that MACD line. EMAs use span smoothing with adjust=False. The histogram (MACD − signal) is computed but is not part of the fire mask — only the line-versus-signal cross is.
Fires when the MACD line crosses below its 9-period signal line.
Definition comes from the rank-rule catalog and the indicator defaults in this repo. Slug macd-bearish-cross is listed on /api/meta.
How to read it
Study side is short-side (labeled SHORT on firing chips). A positive forward return on this page is a decline in the close after the print (side-adjusted). That is how the event is scored — not a recommendation to sell short. A MACD/signal cross is a lagging trend-following event. It does not say the move just started, only that the two EMAs of the MACD line changed order. Histogram color is not the rule. Compare the 5-day versus 3-month windows on this page — they often disagree — and treat disagreement as a reason for caution, not a hidden signal.
Scoring on this site is shared across every rule (5-day / 1-month / 3-month close-to-close windows, side-adjusted). See How it is scored here below. Names in the tracked sample with a measurable history include MSFT · TSLA · AAPL · NVDA. Those figures are the same rows as the hit-rate table below — not a second ranking. Historical hit rates, not a prediction / not trade advice.
When it fails
- MACD is lagging. Crosses often occur after a large part of the move.
- Sideways tapes generate whipsaw crosses in both directions.
- The histogram is not in the mask — do not read histogram color as this rule.
- Past ≠ future. A historical hit rate is not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
- Overlap bias. Clustered prints can credit the same later move more than once.
Same caveats as the rest of the site: /methodology · /help.
How it is scored here
On this site every rule is scored the same way: run it over about two years of daily bars, record each firing, and measure what the name did 5 days, 1 month and 3 months later. Sell signals are measured as shorts, so a positive return is a profitable short (side-adjusted). The composite score is 0.6 × average return + 0.4 × (win rate − 50), with longer horizons weighted more. Nothing here is a forecast.
Full catalog: /signals. Method: /methodology. Slug macd-bearish-cross is stable and listed on /api/meta.
Same family: MACD bullish cross
Firing now (mega-caps, last 5 bars)
Hit rates on tracked names
Same rank engine as /t/spy, /t/nvda, and /t/spx, restricted to this rule.
| Symbol | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count | Last bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 42.9% | 47.6%n=21 | 50.0% | 21 | 2026-10-12 |
| TSLA | 47.8% | 47.6%n=21 | 42.9% | 21 | 2026-10-12 |
| AAPL | 63.2% | 44.4%n=18 | 23.5% | 18 | 2026-10-12 |
| NVDA | 37.5% | 37.5%n=24 | 33.3% | 24 | 2026-10-12 |
| IWM | 30.0% | 30.0%n=20 | 31.6% | 20 | 2026-10-12 |
| SPY | 34.8% | 36.4%n=22 | 25.0% | 22 | 2026-10-12 |
| QQQ | 28.6% | 23.8%n=21 | 35.0% | 21 | 2026-10-12 |
| SPX | 31.8% | 33.3%n=21 | 26.3% | 21 | 2026-10-12 |
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.