spy / SPY — Lord of TA levels & hit rates

Historical hit rates, not a prediction / not trade advice.

Historical hit rates on SPY

Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on SPY, measured on daily bars (2024-10-14 → 2026-10-12, 500 bars, 329 firings). Not a buy or sell list.

Rule Win 5d Win 1mo Win 3mo Count
CCI cross -100LONGWin 75.0% · n=20HIST47.6%75.0%n=2082.4%20
Williams %R cross -80LONGWin 75.9% · n=29HIST50.0%75.9%n=2973.9%29
BB lower band bounceLONGWin 66.7% · n=18HIST47.4%66.7%n=1888.2%18
MACD bullish crossLONGWin 66.7% · n=21HIST52.2%66.7%n=2175.0%21
Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)LONGWin 64.3% · n=14HIST53.3%64.3%n=1466.7%14
EMA 9/21 golden crossLONGWin 70.0% · n=10HIST45.5%70.0%n=1066.7%10
Williams %R cross -20SHORTWin 37.2% · n=43STUDY42.2%37.2%n=4324.4%43
MACD bearish crossSHORTWin 36.4% · n=22STUDY34.8%36.4%n=2225.0%22
Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SHORTWin 25.7% · n=35STUDY55.6%25.7%n=3521.9%35
EMA 9/21 death crossSHORTWin 27.3% · n=11STUDY18.2%27.3%n=1133.3%11
CCI cross 100SHORTWin 23.3% · n=30STUDY35.5%23.3%n=3017.9%30
RSI(14) cross 70SHORTWin 20.0% · n=15STUDY26.7%20.0%n=156.7%15
BB upper band rejectSHORTWin 9.1% · n=11STUDY36.4%9.1%n=110.0%11
SMA 50/200 golden crossLONGWin 100.0% · n=1STUDY100.0%100.0%n=1100.0%1
ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)LONGWin 75.0% · n=4STUDY75.0%75.0%n=4100.0%4
RSI(14) cross 30LONGWin 60.0% · n=5STUDY80.0%60.0%n=5100.0%5
MFI cross 20LONGWin 50.0% · n=2STUDY100.0%50.0%n=2100.0%2
Squeeze fire (bullish)LONGWin 42.9% · n=7STUDY28.6%42.9%n=766.7%7
Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORTWin 16.7% · n=6STUDY85.7%16.7%n=633.3%6
MFI cross 80SHORTWin 20.0% · n=5STUDY0.0%20.0%n=520.0%5
ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SHORTWin 0.0% · n=4STUDY0.0%0.0%n=425.0%4

Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=SPY. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing.

Prior-session levels

Classic levels for SPY from the last completed US cash session 2026-10-12 (America/New_York). Descriptive market levels from daily bars. Not a forecast and not trade advice.

Prior session

Open, high, low, close, and share volume of the daily bar on that session.

Date
2026-10-12
Open
778.78
High
779.40
Low
777.05
Close
778.10
Volume
18,639,800

Classic floor pivots

Classic floor pivots from that session's high (H), low (L), and close (C), the same formulas as the classic pivot-point indicator: P = (H+L+C)/3, R1 = 2P-L, S1 = 2P-H, R2 = P+(H-L), S2 = P-(H-L), R3 = H+2(P-L), S3 = L-2(H-P). Reference levels for the following session, not forecasts and not price targets.

P
778.18
R1
779.32
R2
780.53
R3
781.67
S1
776.97
S2
775.83
S3
774.62

Simple moving averages

Simple moving averages of daily closes ending on session_date. SMA 20, SMA 50, and SMA 200. null means fewer than that many closes were available.

SMA 20
768.56
SMA 50
766.94
SMA 200
720.14

Stored session 2026-10-12 in the daily top-100 (saved_at 2026-10-12T20:21:48Z (2026-10-12 16:21:48 America/New_York)). Daily top-100 levels archive. Tracked names.

Technicals snapshot

On the last completed daily bar (2026-10-12), oscillators are mixed or neutral (2 overbought, 0 oversold, 3 neutral). RSI(14) is 59.9. No majority overbought or oversold reading. Study reading of last-bar values, not a prediction / not trade advice.

Indicator Last bar Reading
RSI(14)59.9Neutral
Stochastic %K79.2Neutral
Williams %R-15.4Overbought
MFI(14)47.4Neutral
CCI(20)106.6Overbought
MACD (12/26/9)3.878above signal
SMA 20768.56close above
SMA 50766.94close above
SMA 200720.14close above
Pivot PP778.18close below PP
Pivot R1779.32classic resistance
Pivot S1776.97classic support

Oscillators, MACD, and moving averages for SPY are the last completed US cash session on this page, the same session as Prior-session levels when that block is shown. Oscillator zones match the screener (RSI 70/30, Stochastic 80/20, Williams %R −20/−80, MFI 80/20, CCI 100/−100). SMA 20/50/200 are simple moving averages of closes through that session. Classic floor pivots (PP, R1, S1) use that session's high, low, and close, the same formulas as Prior-session levels. Last close 778.10 on 2026-10-12. Not a forecast.

FAQ

What are the prior-session levels on SPY?

On the last completed US cash session 2026-10-12 (America/New_York), SPY printed open 778.78, high 779.40, low 777.05, close 778.10, volume 18,639,800. Classic floor pivots from that bar: P 778.18, R1 779.32, R2 780.53, R3 781.67, S1 776.97, S2 775.83, S3 774.62. SMA 20 is 768.56; SMA 50 is 766.94; SMA 200 is 720.14. Descriptive market levels from daily bars. Not a forecast and not trade advice.

What is the 1-month hit rate of the top rule on SPY?

On daily bars through 2026-10-12, among rules with at least 10 measurable 1-month firings, CCI cross -100 has Win 75.0% · n=20. That is a historical measurement on this tape, not a forecast. Rows with n<10 are muted anecdotes and are not used as the FAQ headline.

How many rules are measured?

This page scores 21 rank-panel rules on SPY (500 daily bars, 329 firings, 2024-10-14 → 2026-10-12). Count is how many firings had a measurable 1-month forward return.

Is this trade advice?

No. These are historical hit rates of classic TA rules on daily bars, not a buy or sell list and not investment advice. See the help manual and methodology.

Is SPY overbought or oversold?

On the last completed daily bar (2026-10-12), oscillators are mixed or neutral (2 overbought, 0 oversold, 3 neutral). RSI(14) is 59.9. No majority overbought or oversold reading. Study reading of last-bar values, not a prediction / not trade advice. Oscillator zones are last-bar study readings, not a forecast.

Honest caveats

  • Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
  • No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
  • Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
  • Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.

Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.