signals / Squeeze fire (bearish)
Squeeze fire (bearish) is a short-side study. Fires when a TTM Squeeze releases with negative momentum.
Quiet day for this theme
Today is quiet for Squeeze fire (bearish) — no study-grade (n≥10) firings among 30 mega-cap names in the last 5 daily bars. That is today's scan result, not a forecast, and not a LONG/SHORT call. Historical context and other themes that did fire are below — not invented firings for this theme.
Historical context on tracked names
Same rank engine as /t/spy. These are HIST hit rates on the tracked sample, not today's firings. Study-grade rows (n≥10) first; n<10 anecdotes are folded below.
No study-grade (n≥10) HIST rows on the tracked sample. Thin samples (n<10) are folded below — they are not headline hit rates.
Anecdotes (n<10) — not headline hit rates
These rows have fewer than 10 measurable 1-month firings. A 100% win on n=1 is not a claim.
| Symbol | Rule | Last date | Win / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 25.0% · n=4 |
| SPX | Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 33.3% · n=6 |
| SPY | Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 16.7% · n=6 |
| IWM | Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 16.7% · n=6 |
| MSFT | Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 33.3% · n=6 |
| NVDA | Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 40.0% · n=5 |
| AAPL | Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 0.0% · n=3 |
| QQQ | Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORT | 2026-10-12 | Win 0.0% · n=6 |
Themes firing today — Golden cross · MACD bullish · RSI overbought · Death cross.
Rules firing today — EMA 9/21 golden cross · Williams %R cross -80 · CCI cross 100 · CCI cross -100.
Also study — SPY technicals · Most mega-caps closed above SMA200 as of 2026-10-12. · full firing scan.
FAQ
What is Squeeze fire (bearish)?
Squeeze fire (bearish) is a short-side study. Fires when a TTM Squeeze releases with negative momentum.
Which names are firing it?
No study-grade (n≥10) mega-cap firings in the last 5 daily bars. Thin samples (n<10): MA.
What is the sample?
Hit rates use the same rank engine as /t/spy on a fixed sample (SPY, SPX, QQQ, IWM, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA). 8 of those names have a measurable history for this rule. Windows are 5 days, 1 month and 3 months on daily bars. Last bar in sample: 2026-10-12. Method: /methodology. Caveats: /help.
Why is today quiet for this study?
No study-grade (n≥10) mega-cap firings for Squeeze fire (bearish) in the last 5 daily bars. Historical context on tracked names and other rules that did fire are in the quiet-day study pack — not invented firings. See SPY technicals, /breadth, and /firing.
What does Squeeze fire (bearish) measure?
Fires on a squeeze release bar whose momentum print is strictly less than zero. Underlying math: see How it works on this page. Catalog line: Fires when a TTM Squeeze releases with negative momentum.
What does a firing mean?
A firing is the daily bar where this rule’s condition becomes true (a cross or a flip). It is a study event, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Forward windows on this site are close-to-close with no costs. Study side is short-side (SHORT). A positive forward return is a decline in the close after the print (side-adjusted) — a scoring convention, not a recommendation to sell short. Method: /methodology.
Why can the sample be small?
Hit rates need enough dated prints with a completed forward window. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence — the same caveat as /help. Slow rules (especially 50/200 SMA crosses) often have single-digit counts on a two-year tape. We do not invent a hit rate when the count is missing. Names in this sample with a measurable history include NVDA · SPX · MSFT · TSLA.
How it works
TTM-style squeeze as implemented here (not a licensed TTM product). Compression is Bollinger width / Keltner width ≤ 1: BB(20, 2.0) inside KC(20, 1.5), where the Keltner channel is EMA(20) of close ± 1.5 × ATR(10). squeeze_release is the first bar compression ends. Momentum is a 20-bar rolling linear regression of (close − midpoint), and midpoint is the average of a 20-bar Donchian mid and the 20-bar SMA of close. A signed fire requires that release and a strictly positive or negative momentum print; NaN momentum is neither side.
Fires on a squeeze release bar whose momentum print is strictly less than zero.
Definition comes from the rank-rule catalog and the indicator defaults in this repo. Slug squeeze-fire-bearish is listed on /api/meta.
How to read it
Study side is short-side (labeled SHORT on firing chips). A positive forward return on this page is a decline in the close after the print (side-adjusted). That is how the event is scored — not a recommendation to sell short. A squeeze fire is “compression just ended, and the momentum regression has a sign.” It is not a volatility forecast and not John Carter’s commercial TTM Squeeze. Opposite-sign momentum on the release bar is a different rule (the bearish or bullish sibling). Zero or NaN momentum does not fire.
Scoring on this site is shared across every rule (5-day / 1-month / 3-month close-to-close windows, side-adjusted). See How it is scored here below. Names in the tracked sample with a measurable history include NVDA · SPX · MSFT · TSLA. Those figures are the same rows as the hit-rate table below — not a second ranking. Historical hit rates, not a prediction / not trade advice.
When it fails
- Compression uses BB-inside-KC with these exact lengths; other squeeze recipes will not match.
- Momentum sign on the release bar can flip the next day — this rule does not wait for confirmation.
- NaN momentum is excluded on purpose so an empty regression is not scored as bearish.
- Past ≠ future. A historical hit rate is not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
- Overlap bias. Clustered prints can credit the same later move more than once.
Same caveats as the rest of the site: /methodology · /help.
How it is scored here
On this site every rule is scored the same way: run it over about two years of daily bars, record each firing, and measure what the name did 5 days, 1 month and 3 months later. Sell signals are measured as shorts, so a positive return is a profitable short (side-adjusted). The composite score is 0.6 × average return + 0.4 × (win rate − 50), with longer horizons weighted more. Nothing here is a forecast.
Full catalog: /signals. Method: /methodology. Slug squeeze-fire-bearish is stable and listed on /api/meta.
Same family: Squeeze fire (bullish)
Firing now (mega-caps, last 5 bars)
| Symbol | Last date | Win 1mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA | 2026-10-08Win 57.1% · n=7STUDY | 57.1%n=7 | 7 |
Hit rates on tracked names
Same rank engine as /t/spy, /t/nvda, and /t/spx, restricted to this rule.
| Symbol | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count | Last bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 60.0% | 25.0%n=4 | 25.0% | 4 | 2026-10-12 |
| SPX | 62.5% | 33.3%n=6 | 33.3% | 6 | 2026-10-12 |
| SPY | 85.7% | 16.7%n=6 | 33.3% | 6 | 2026-10-12 |
| IWM | 83.3% | 16.7%n=6 | 16.7% | 6 | 2026-10-12 |
| MSFT | 83.3% | 33.3%n=6 | 16.7% | 6 | 2026-10-12 |
| NVDA | 20.0% | 40.0%n=5 | 20.0% | 5 | 2026-10-12 |
| AAPL | 33.3% | 0.0%n=3 | 33.3% | 3 | 2026-10-12 |
| QQQ | 66.7% | 0.0%n=6 | 0.0% | 6 | 2026-10-12 |
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.