signals / Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)
Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold) is a long-side study. Fires when Stochastic %K crosses above %D while in the oversold zone (below 20).
FAQ
What is Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)?
Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold) is a long-side study. Fires when Stochastic %K crosses above %D while in the oversold zone (below 20).
What is the sample?
Hit rates use the same rank engine as /t/spy on a fixed sample (SPY, SPX, QQQ, IWM, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA). 8 of those names have a measurable history for this rule. Windows are 5 days, 1 month and 3 months on daily bars. Last bar in sample: 2026-10-12. Method: /methodology. Caveats: /help.
What does Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold) measure?
Fires when Stochastic %K crosses above %D and %K is in the oversold zone on this bar or the prior bar (below 20). Underlying math: see How it works on this page. Catalog line: Fires when Stochastic %K crosses above %D while in the oversold zone (below 20).
What does a firing mean?
A firing is the daily bar where this rule’s condition becomes true (a cross or a flip). It is a study event, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Forward windows on this site are close-to-close with no costs. Study side is long-side (LONG). A positive forward return is a rise in the close after the print — a scoring convention, not a recommendation to buy. Method: /methodology.
Why can the sample be small?
Hit rates need enough dated prints with a completed forward window. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence — the same caveat as /help. Slow rules (especially 50/200 SMA crosses) often have single-digit counts on a two-year tape. We do not invent a hit rate when the count is missing. Names in this sample with a measurable history include AAPL · SPX · IWM · SPY.
How it works
Slow stochastic on daily bars: lookback 14, %K smoothed 3, %D = 3-period SMA of %K. Raw %K is 100 × (close − 14-bar low) / (14-bar high − 14-bar low). The oversold / overbought zone uses the current or prior %K (a cross still counts if %K has just left 20 / 80).
Fires when Stochastic %K crosses above %D and %K is in the oversold zone on this bar or the prior bar (below 20).
Definition comes from the rank-rule catalog and the indicator defaults in this repo. Slug stoch-kd-cross-oversold is listed on /api/meta.
How to read it
Study side is long-side (labeled LONG on firing chips). A positive forward return on this page is a rise in the close after the print. That is how the event is scored — not a recommendation to buy. A %K/%D cross inside an extreme zone is a classic oscillator setup. Because the zone test allows the prior bar, a print can occur on the bar %K leaves 20 or 80. That is a definition detail, not extra edge. Use the count column: many stochastic crosses on a two-year tape are still a small sample once you want a 3-month window.
Scoring on this site is shared across every rule (5-day / 1-month / 3-month close-to-close windows, side-adjusted). See How it is scored here below. Names in the tracked sample with a measurable history include AAPL · SPX · IWM · SPY. Those figures are the same rows as the hit-rate table below — not a second ranking. Historical hit rates, not a prediction / not trade advice.
When it fails
- Choppy ranges produce many %K/%D crosses; most are not durable turns.
- A strong trend can print oversold or overbought crosses that fail immediately.
- The prior-bar zone allowance means a print can occur after %K has already left 20 / 80.
- Past ≠ future. A historical hit rate is not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
- Overlap bias. Clustered prints can credit the same later move more than once.
Same caveats as the rest of the site: /methodology · /help.
How it is scored here
On this site every rule is scored the same way: run it over about two years of daily bars, record each firing, and measure what the name did 5 days, 1 month and 3 months later. Sell signals are measured as shorts, so a positive return is a profitable short (side-adjusted). The composite score is 0.6 × average return + 0.4 × (win rate − 50), with longer horizons weighted more. Nothing here is a forecast.
Full catalog: /signals. Method: /methodology. Slug stoch-kd-cross-oversold is stable and listed on /api/meta.
Same family: Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)
Firing now (mega-caps, last 5 bars)
Hit rates on tracked names
Same rank engine as /t/spy, /t/nvda, and /t/spx, restricted to this rule.
| Symbol | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count | Last bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 68.4% | 78.9%n=19 | 70.6% | 19 | 2026-10-12 |
| QQQ | 53.3% | 57.1%n=14 | 83.3% | 14 | 2026-10-12 |
| NVDA | 70.0% | 57.9%n=19 | 58.8% | 19 | 2026-10-12 |
| SPX | 57.1% | 69.2%n=13 | 63.6% | 13 | 2026-10-12 |
| IWM | 28.6% | 66.7%n=12 | 72.7% | 12 | 2026-10-12 |
| SPY | 53.3% | 64.3%n=14 | 66.7% | 14 | 2026-10-12 |
| TSLA | 54.5% | 52.4%n=21 | 61.1% | 21 | 2026-10-12 |
| MSFT | 60.0% | 45.0%n=20 | 65.0% | 20 | 2026-10-12 |
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.