signals / MACD bullish cross

MACD bullish cross is a long-side study. Fires when the MACD line crosses above its signal line.

FAQ

What is MACD bullish cross?

MACD bullish cross is a long-side study. Fires when the MACD line crosses above its signal line.

Which names are firing it?

Among mega-caps in the last 5 daily bars: JPM, WMT, TSLA, MA, BRK-B, V, KO, LLY, CVX, ABBV, NFLX, XOM, HD, PG, PEP, ADBE.

What is the sample?

Hit rates use the same rank engine as /t/spy on a fixed sample (SPY, SPX, QQQ, IWM, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA). 8 of those names have a measurable history for this rule. Windows are 5 days, 1 month and 3 months on daily bars. Last bar in sample: 2026-10-12. Method: /methodology. Caveats: /help.

What does MACD bullish cross measure?

Fires when the MACD line crosses above its 9-period signal line. Underlying math: see How it works on this page. Catalog line: Fires when the MACD line crosses above its signal line.

What does a firing mean?

A firing is the daily bar where this rule’s condition becomes true (a cross or a flip). It is a study event, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Forward windows on this site are close-to-close with no costs. Study side is long-side (LONG). A positive forward return is a rise in the close after the print — a scoring convention, not a recommendation to buy. Method: /methodology.

Why can the sample be small?

Hit rates need enough dated prints with a completed forward window. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence — the same caveat as /help. Slow rules (especially 50/200 SMA crosses) often have single-digit counts on a two-year tape. We do not invent a hit rate when the count is missing. Names in this sample with a measurable history include SPX · IWM · AAPL · SPY.

How it works

MACD line is EMA(12) − EMA(26) of the daily close; the signal line is an EMA(9) of that MACD line. EMAs use span smoothing with adjust=False. The histogram (MACD − signal) is computed but is not part of the fire mask — only the line-versus-signal cross is.

Fires when the MACD line crosses above its 9-period signal line.

Definition comes from the rank-rule catalog and the indicator defaults in this repo. Slug macd-bullish-cross is listed on /api/meta.

How to read it

Study side is long-side (labeled LONG on firing chips). A positive forward return on this page is a rise in the close after the print. That is how the event is scored — not a recommendation to buy. A MACD/signal cross is a lagging trend-following event. It does not say the move just started, only that the two EMAs of the MACD line changed order. Histogram color is not the rule. Compare the 5-day versus 3-month windows on this page — they often disagree — and treat disagreement as a reason for caution, not a hidden signal.

Scoring on this site is shared across every rule (5-day / 1-month / 3-month close-to-close windows, side-adjusted). See How it is scored here below. Names in the tracked sample with a measurable history include SPX · IWM · AAPL · SPY. Those figures are the same rows as the hit-rate table below — not a second ranking. Historical hit rates, not a prediction / not trade advice.

When it fails

  • MACD is lagging. Crosses often occur after a large part of the move.
  • Sideways tapes generate whipsaw crosses in both directions.
  • The histogram is not in the mask — do not read histogram color as this rule.
  • Past ≠ future. A historical hit rate is not a prediction and not investment advice.
  • No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
  • Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
  • Overlap bias. Clustered prints can credit the same later move more than once.

Same caveats as the rest of the site: /methodology · /help.

How it is scored here

On this site every rule is scored the same way: run it over about two years of daily bars, record each firing, and measure what the name did 5 days, 1 month and 3 months later. Sell signals are measured as shorts, so a positive return is a profitable short (side-adjusted). The composite score is 0.6 × average return + 0.4 × (win rate − 50), with longer horizons weighted more. Nothing here is a forecast.

Full catalog: /signals. Method: /methodology. Slug macd-bullish-cross is stable and listed on /api/meta.

Same family: MACD bearish cross

Firing now (mega-caps, last 5 bars)

SymbolLast date Win 1moCount
JPM2026-10-12Win 68.4% · n=19FIRED68.4%n=1919
WMT2026-10-07Win 63.2% · n=19FIRED63.2%n=1919
TSLA2026-10-06Win 54.5% · n=22FIRED54.5%n=2222
MA2026-10-07Win 58.3% · n=24FIRED58.3%n=2424
BRK-B2026-10-08Win 55.0% · n=20FIRED55.0%n=2020
V2026-10-07Win 52.0% · n=25FIRED52.0%n=2525
KO2026-10-09Win 52.4% · n=21FIRED52.4%n=2121
LLY2026-10-07Win 52.9% · n=17FIRED52.9%n=1717
CVX2026-10-09Win 50.0% · n=22FIRED50.0%n=2222
ABBV2026-10-07Win 47.8% · n=23STUDY47.8%n=2323
NFLX2026-10-08Win 47.4% · n=19STUDY47.4%n=1919
XOM2026-10-06Win 45.0% · n=20STUDY45.0%n=2020
HD2026-10-07Win 43.8% · n=16STUDY43.8%n=1616
PG2026-10-07Win 43.5% · n=23STUDY43.5%n=2323
PEP2026-10-09Win 41.2% · n=17STUDY41.2%n=1717
ADBE2026-10-08Win 41.2% · n=17STUDY41.2%n=1717

Hit rates on tracked names

Same rank engine as /t/spy, /t/nvda, and /t/spx, restricted to this rule.

Symbol Win 5d Win 1mo Win 3mo Count Last bar
TSLA47.8%54.5%n=2271.4%222026-10-12
AAPL57.9%68.4%n=1972.2%192026-10-12
IWM47.6%70.0%n=2078.9%202026-10-12
SPX54.5%70.0%n=2073.7%202026-10-12
SPY52.2%66.7%n=2175.0%212026-10-12
QQQ52.4%60.0%n=2057.9%202026-10-12
NVDA54.2%47.8%n=2357.1%232026-10-12
MSFT52.4%40.0%n=2055.0%202026-10-12

Honest caveats

  • Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
  • No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
  • Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
  • Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.

Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.