xlp / What works on XLP
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on XLP, measured on daily bars (2024-08-29 → 2026-08-28, 501 bars, 325 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
What works on XLP
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFI cross 80SELL | 50.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 75.0% | 75.0% | 75.0% | 4 |
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 100.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 2 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 50.0% | 83.3% | 66.7% | 6 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 64.7% | 70.6% | 62.5% | 17 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 62.5% | 68.8% | 56.7% | 32 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 33.3% | 50.0% | 80.0% | 6 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 40.0% | 46.7% | 76.9% | 15 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 56.5% | 60.9% | 59.1% | 23 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 56.7% | 63.3% | 57.1% | 30 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 58.8% | 82.4% | 33.3% | 18 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 34.8% | 55.0% | 57.1% | 23 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 2 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 1 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 33.3% | 66.7% | 33.3% | 3 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 31.8% | 26.3% | 64.3% | 23 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 44.0% | 56.0% | 37.5% | 25 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 55.0% | 53.8% | 35.1% | 41 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 28.6% | 42.9% | 50.0% | 14 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 42.9% | 55.6% | 32.0% | 29 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 37.5% | 0.0% | 57.1% | 8 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=XLP. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: MFI cross 80 · ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong) · RSI(14) cross 30.
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.