xli / What works on XLI
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on XLI, measured on daily bars (2024-08-29 → 2026-08-28, 501 bars, 329 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
What works on XLI
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 50.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 4 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 50.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 40.0% | 75.0% | 100.0% | 5 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 41.7% | 58.3% | 100.0% | 12 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 50.0% | 78.6% | 84.6% | 15 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 56.5% | 60.9% | 85.0% | 24 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 46.2% | 66.7% | 81.8% | 13 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 47.1% | 68.8% | 80.0% | 18 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 54.5% | 61.9% | 73.7% | 22 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 100.0% | 66.7% | 33.3% | 3 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 29.4% | 35.3% | 41.2% | 17 |
| MFI cross 80SELL | 25.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 4 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 51.2% | 35.9% | 29.4% | 41 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 36.4% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 22 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 47.1% | 25.0% | 29.6% | 34 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 35.4% | 39.1% | 23.7% | 48 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 40.9% | 19.0% | 26.3% | 22 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 46.2% | 33.3% | 10.0% | 13 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 3 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=XLI. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: SMA 50/200 golden cross · RSI(14) cross 30 · MFI cross 20.
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.