xlf / XLF — Lord of TA levels & hit rates

Historical hit rates, not a prediction / not trade advice.

Historical hit rates on XLF

Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on XLF, measured on daily bars (2024-10-14 → 2026-10-12, 500 bars, 313 firings). Not a buy or sell list.

Rule Win 5d Win 1mo Win 3mo Count
EMA 9/21 golden crossLONGWin 91.7% · n=12HIST66.7%91.7%n=1275.0%12
Williams %R cross -80LONGWin 60.0% · n=30HIST46.9%60.0%n=3077.8%30
MACD bullish crossLONGWin 68.4% · n=19HIST47.4%68.4%n=1966.7%19
CCI cross -100LONGWin 58.6% · n=29HIST53.3%58.6%n=2970.4%29
BB lower band bounceLONGWin 53.8% · n=13HIST46.7%53.8%n=1376.9%13
CCI cross 100SHORTWin 68.0% · n=25HIST48.0%68.0%n=2555.6%25
Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)LONGWin 57.1% · n=14HIST27.8%57.1%n=1464.3%14
RSI(14) cross 70SHORTWin 50.0% · n=12HIST41.7%50.0%n=1250.0%12
Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SHORTWin 53.6% · n=28HIST35.7%53.6%n=2847.8%28
Williams %R cross -20SHORTWin 52.6% · n=38HIST36.8%52.6%n=3846.9%38
MACD bearish crossSHORTWin 47.4% · n=19STUDY47.4%47.4%n=1935.3%19
BB upper band rejectSHORTWin 31.2% · n=16STUDY43.8%31.2%n=1633.3%16
EMA 9/21 death crossSHORTWin 16.7% · n=12STUDY33.3%16.7%n=129.1%12
MFI cross 20LONGWin 100.0% · n=2STUDY66.7%100.0%n=2100.0%2
RSI(14) cross 30LONGWin 83.3% · n=6STUDY85.7%83.3%n=6100.0%6
Squeeze fire (bullish)LONGWin 66.7% · n=3STUDY100.0%66.7%n=3100.0%3
ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)LONGWin 100.0% · n=2STUDY100.0%100.0%n=250.0%2
SMA 50/200 golden crossLONGWin 100.0% · n=2STUDY100.0%100.0%n=250.0%2
ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SHORTWin 66.7% · n=3STUDY66.7%66.7%n=366.7%3
Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORTWin 80.0% · n=5STUDY66.7%80.0%n=525.0%5
MFI cross 80SHORTWin 55.6% · n=9STUDY22.2%55.6%n=937.5%9
SMA 50/200 death crossSHORTWin 0.0% · n=1STUDY0.0%0.0%n=10.0%1

Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=XLF. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing.

Prior-session levels

Classic levels for XLF from the last completed US cash session 2026-10-12 (America/New_York). Descriptive market levels from daily bars. Not a forecast and not trade advice.

Prior session

Open, high, low, close, and share volume of the daily bar on that session.

Date
2026-10-12
Open
54.86
High
55.17
Low
54.83
Close
55.05
Volume
19,644,200

Classic floor pivots

Classic floor pivots from that session's high (H), low (L), and close (C), the same formulas as the classic pivot-point indicator: P = (H+L+C)/3, R1 = 2P-L, S1 = 2P-H, R2 = P+(H-L), S2 = P-(H-L), R3 = H+2(P-L), S3 = L-2(H-P). Reference levels for the following session, not forecasts and not price targets.

P
55.02
R1
55.20
R2
55.36
R3
55.54
S1
54.86
S2
54.68
S3
54.52

Simple moving averages

Simple moving averages of daily closes ending on session_date. SMA 20, SMA 50, and SMA 200. null means fewer than that many closes were available.

SMA 20
54.63
SMA 50
56.36
SMA 200
53.33

Stored session 2026-10-12 in the daily top-100 (saved_at 2026-10-12T20:21:48Z (2026-10-12 16:21:48 America/New_York)). Daily top-100 levels archive. Tracked names.

Technicals snapshot

On the last completed daily bar (2026-10-12), oscillators are mixed or neutral (1 overbought, 0 oversold, 4 neutral). RSI(14) is 50.0. No majority overbought or oversold reading. Study reading of last-bar values, not a prediction / not trade advice.

Indicator Last bar Reading
RSI(14)50.0Neutral
Stochastic %K65.3Neutral
Williams %R-5.1Overbought
MFI(14)41.7Neutral
CCI(20)34.2Neutral
MACD (12/26/9)-0.583above signal
SMA 2054.63close above
SMA 5056.36close below
SMA 20053.33close above
Pivot PP55.02close above PP
Pivot R155.20classic resistance
Pivot S154.86classic support

Oscillators, MACD, and moving averages for XLF are the last completed US cash session on this page, the same session as Prior-session levels when that block is shown. Oscillator zones match the screener (RSI 70/30, Stochastic 80/20, Williams %R −20/−80, MFI 80/20, CCI 100/−100). SMA 20/50/200 are simple moving averages of closes through that session. Classic floor pivots (PP, R1, S1) use that session's high, low, and close, the same formulas as Prior-session levels. Last close 55.05 on 2026-10-12. Not a forecast.

FAQ

What are the prior-session levels on XLF?

On the last completed US cash session 2026-10-12 (America/New_York), XLF printed open 54.86, high 55.17, low 54.83, close 55.05, volume 19,644,200. Classic floor pivots from that bar: P 55.02, R1 55.20, R2 55.36, R3 55.54, S1 54.86, S2 54.68, S3 54.52. SMA 20 is 54.63; SMA 50 is 56.36; SMA 200 is 53.33. Descriptive market levels from daily bars. Not a forecast and not trade advice.

What is the 1-month hit rate of the top rule on XLF?

On daily bars through 2026-10-12, among rules with at least 10 measurable 1-month firings, EMA 9/21 golden cross has Win 91.7% · n=12. That is a historical measurement on this tape, not a forecast. Rows with n<10 are muted anecdotes and are not used as the FAQ headline.

How many rules are measured?

This page scores 22 rank-panel rules on XLF (500 daily bars, 313 firings, 2024-10-14 → 2026-10-12). Count is how many firings had a measurable 1-month forward return.

Is this trade advice?

No. These are historical hit rates of classic TA rules on daily bars, not a buy or sell list and not investment advice. See the help manual and methodology.

Is XLF overbought or oversold?

On the last completed daily bar (2026-10-12), oscillators are mixed or neutral (1 overbought, 0 oversold, 4 neutral). RSI(14) is 50.0. No majority overbought or oversold reading. Study reading of last-bar values, not a prediction / not trade advice. Oscillator zones are last-bar study readings, not a forecast.

Honest caveats

  • Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
  • No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
  • Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
  • Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.

Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.