xlf / What works on XLF
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on XLF, measured on daily bars (2024-08-29 → 2026-08-28, 501 bars, 308 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
What works on XLF
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 60.0% | 80.0% | 100.0% | 5 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 100.0% | 66.7% | 100.0% | 3 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 100.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 2 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 50.0% | 83.3% | 72.7% | 12 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 48.3% | 67.9% | 78.6% | 29 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 66.7% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 3 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 51.9% | 63.0% | 69.2% | 27 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 46.2% | 53.8% | 76.9% | 13 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 40.0% | 68.4% | 66.7% | 20 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 33.3% | 60.0% | 66.7% | 15 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 50.0% | 52.2% | 50.0% | 27 |
| MFI cross 80SELL | 33.3% | 55.6% | 50.0% | 9 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 50.0% | 41.7% | 50.0% | 12 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 40.0% | 46.4% | 43.5% | 31 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 37.5% | 44.7% | 45.2% | 41 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 55.0% | 42.1% | 33.3% | 20 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 40.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 5 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 50.0% | 29.4% | 28.6% | 18 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 36.4% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=XLF. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: SMA 50/200 golden cross · RSI(14) cross 30 · Squeeze fire (bullish).
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.