xle / What works on XLE
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on XLE, measured on daily bars (2024-08-29 → 2026-08-28, 501 bars, 309 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
What works on XLE
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 62.5% | 93.3% | 100.0% | 16 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 81.8% | 90.9% | 80.0% | 11 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 73.1% | 83.3% | 75.0% | 26 |
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 50.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 33.3% | 100.0% | 66.7% | 3 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 45.5% | 81.8% | 70.0% | 11 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 20.0% | 75.0% | 75.0% | 5 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 50.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 2 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 56.5% | 54.5% | 66.7% | 23 |
| MFI cross 80SELL | 77.8% | 55.6% | 62.5% | 9 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 70.6% | 41.2% | 60.0% | 17 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 54.5% | 65.0% | 52.6% | 22 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 1 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 1 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 45.5% | 36.4% | 45.5% | 12 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 58.8% | 42.4% | 35.5% | 34 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 53.3% | 36.7% | 31.0% | 31 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 48.8% | 35.0% | 31.6% | 42 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 37.5% | 31.2% | 26.7% | 16 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 40.9% | 33.3% | 19.0% | 23 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=XLE. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold) · CCI cross -100 · Williams %R cross -80.
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.