tlt / What works on TLT
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on TLT, measured on daily bars (2024-08-27 → 2026-08-27, 502 bars, 338 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
What works on TLT
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFI cross 80SELL | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 3 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 62.5% | 62.5% | 85.7% | 17 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 50.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 2 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 57.7% | 65.4% | 63.6% | 26 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 100.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 2 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 58.6% | 55.2% | 59.3% | 29 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 60.6% | 56.2% | 57.1% | 33 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 61.9% | 47.4% | 55.6% | 21 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 50.0% | 56.2% | 53.3% | 16 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 12.5% | 50.0% | 62.5% | 8 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 41.7% | 39.4% | 53.3% | 36 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 75.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 5 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 44.4% | 51.2% | 39.0% | 45 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 46.7% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 16 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 41.9% | 41.4% | 42.3% | 31 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 47.6% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 21 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 53.8% | 54.5% | 27.3% | 13 |
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 1 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 37.5% | 50.0% | 12.5% | 8 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=TLT. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: MFI cross 80 · RSI(14) cross 70 · ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong).
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.