tlt / TLT — Lord of TA levels & hit rates
Historical hit rates on TLT
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on TLT, measured on daily bars (2024-10-14 → 2026-10-12, 500 bars, 331 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BB upper band rejectSHORTWin 58.8% · n=17HIST | 70.6% | 58.8%n=17 | 87.5% | 17 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SHORTWin 66.7% · n=27HIST | 59.3% | 66.7%n=27 | 69.2% | 27 |
| Williams %R cross -20SHORTWin 55.9% · n=34HIST | 61.8% | 55.9%n=34 | 62.5% | 34 |
| MACD bearish crossSHORTWin 60.0% · n=20HIST | 66.7% | 60.0%n=20 | 58.8% | 20 |
| CCI cross 100SHORTWin 53.3% · n=30HIST | 63.3% | 53.3%n=30 | 62.1% | 30 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSHORTWin 62.5% · n=16HIST | 56.2% | 62.5%n=16 | 53.3% | 16 |
| Williams %R cross -80LONGWin 57.5% · n=40HIST | 46.3% | 57.5%n=40 | 44.4% | 40 |
| BB lower band bounceLONGWin 61.5% · n=13HIST | 57.1% | 61.5%n=13 | 30.0% | 13 |
| CCI cross -100LONGWin 37.5% · n=32STUDY | 42.4% | 37.5%n=32 | 61.5% | 32 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)LONGWin 42.3% · n=26STUDY | 51.7% | 42.3%n=26 | 50.0% | 26 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossLONGWin 37.5% · n=16STUDY | 37.5% | 37.5%n=16 | 40.0% | 16 |
| MACD bullish crossLONGWin 40.0% · n=20STUDY | 42.9% | 40.0%n=20 | 35.3% | 20 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)LONGWin 100.0% · n=1STUDY | 100.0% | 100.0%n=1 | 100.0% | 1 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SHORTWin 100.0% · n=1STUDY | 100.0% | 100.0%n=1 | 100.0% | 1 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SHORTWin 66.7% · n=3STUDY | 100.0% | 66.7%n=3 | 100.0% | 3 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSHORTWin 100.0% · n=2STUDY | 100.0% | 100.0%n=2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| MFI cross 80SHORTWin 0.0% · n=1STUDY | 100.0% | 0.0%n=1 | 100.0% | 1 |
| RSI(14) cross 30LONGWin 100.0% · n=3STUDY | 66.7% | 100.0%n=3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SHORTWin 42.9% · n=7STUDY | 14.3% | 42.9%n=7 | 71.4% | 7 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)LONGWin 20.0% · n=5STUDY | 60.0% | 20.0%n=5 | 50.0% | 5 |
| MFI cross 20LONGWin 100.0% · n=1STUDY | 0.0% | 100.0%n=1 | 0.0% | 1 |
| SMA 50/200 golden crossLONGWin 100.0% · n=1STUDY | 0.0% | 100.0%n=1 | 0.0% | 1 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=TLT. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing.
Prior-session levels
Classic levels for TLT from the last completed US cash session 2026-10-12 (America/New_York). Descriptive market levels from daily bars. Not a forecast and not trade advice.
Prior session
Open, high, low, close, and share volume of the daily bar on that session.
- Date
- 2026-10-12
- Open
- 77.83
- High
- 78.06
- Low
- 77.83
- Close
- 78.05
- Volume
- 15,346,700
Classic floor pivots
Classic floor pivots from that session's high (H), low (L), and close (C), the same formulas as the classic pivot-point indicator: P = (H+L+C)/3, R1 = 2P-L, S1 = 2P-H, R2 = P+(H-L), S2 = P-(H-L), R3 = H+2(P-L), S3 = L-2(H-P). Reference levels for the following session, not forecasts and not price targets.
- P
- 77.98
- R1
- 78.13
- R2
- 78.21
- R3
- 78.36
- S1
- 77.90
- S2
- 77.75
- S3
- 77.67
Simple moving averages
Simple moving averages of daily closes ending on session_date. SMA 20, SMA 50, and SMA 200. null means fewer than that many closes were available.
- SMA 20
- 78.94
- SMA 50
- 80.59
- SMA 200
- 83.52
Stored session 2026-10-12 in the daily top-100 (saved_at 2026-10-12T20:21:48Z (2026-10-12 16:21:48 America/New_York)). Daily top-100 levels archive. Tracked names.
Technicals snapshot
On the last completed daily bar (2026-10-12), oscillators are mixed or neutral (0 overbought, 0 oversold, 5 neutral). RSI(14) is 38.2. No majority overbought or oversold reading. Study reading of last-bar values, not a prediction / not trade advice.
| Indicator | Last bar | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| RSI(14) | 38.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic %K | 30.6 | Neutral |
| Williams %R | -65.9 | Neutral |
| MFI(14) | 24.6 | Neutral |
| CCI(20) | -43.2 | Neutral |
| MACD (12/26/9) | -0.981 | above signal |
| SMA 20 | 78.94 | close below |
| SMA 50 | 80.59 | close below |
| SMA 200 | 83.52 | close below |
| Pivot PP | 77.98 | close above PP |
| Pivot R1 | 78.13 | classic resistance |
| Pivot S1 | 77.90 | classic support |
Oscillators, MACD, and moving averages for TLT are the last completed US cash session on this page, the same session as Prior-session levels when that block is shown. Oscillator zones match the screener (RSI 70/30, Stochastic 80/20, Williams %R −20/−80, MFI 80/20, CCI 100/−100). SMA 20/50/200 are simple moving averages of closes through that session. Classic floor pivots (PP, R1, S1) use that session's high, low, and close, the same formulas as Prior-session levels. Last close 78.05 on 2026-10-12. Not a forecast.
FAQ
What are the prior-session levels on TLT?
On the last completed US cash session 2026-10-12 (America/New_York), TLT printed open 77.83, high 78.06, low 77.83, close 78.05, volume 15,346,700. Classic floor pivots from that bar: P 77.98, R1 78.13, R2 78.21, R3 78.36, S1 77.90, S2 77.75, S3 77.67. SMA 20 is 78.94; SMA 50 is 80.59; SMA 200 is 83.52. Descriptive market levels from daily bars. Not a forecast and not trade advice.
What is the 1-month hit rate of the top rule on TLT?
On daily bars through 2026-10-12, among rules with at least 10 measurable 1-month firings, BB upper band reject has Win 58.8% · n=17. That is a historical measurement on this tape, not a forecast. Rows with n<10 are muted anecdotes and are not used as the FAQ headline.
How many rules are measured?
This page scores 22 rank-panel rules on TLT (500 daily bars, 331 firings, 2024-10-14 → 2026-10-12). Count is how many firings had a measurable 1-month forward return.
Is this trade advice?
No. These are historical hit rates of classic TA rules on daily bars, not a buy or sell list and not investment advice. See the help manual and methodology.
Is TLT overbought or oversold?
On the last completed daily bar (2026-10-12), oscillators are mixed or neutral (0 overbought, 0 oversold, 5 neutral). RSI(14) is 38.2. No majority overbought or oversold reading. Study reading of last-bar values, not a prediction / not trade advice. Oscillator zones are last-bar study readings, not a forecast.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.