spx / What works on SPX
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on SPX, measured on daily bars (2024-08-27 → 2026-08-27, 502 bars, 322 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
Daily bars for SPX are loaded via Yahoo alias ^GSPC; the symbol on the page stays SPX.
What works on SPX
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFI cross 20BUY | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 66.7% | 66.7% | 100.0% | 6 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 66.7% | 66.7% | 100.0% | 3 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 59.3% | 76.9% | 77.3% | 28 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 52.6% | 72.2% | 81.2% | 19 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 45.0% | 63.2% | 83.3% | 20 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 70.0% | 77.8% | 62.5% | 10 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 54.5% | 71.4% | 70.0% | 22 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 53.8% | 75.0% | 66.7% | 14 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 25.0% | 50.0% | 75.0% | 4 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 80.0% | 25.0% | 33.3% | 5 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 20.0% | 30.0% | 37.5% | 10 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 38.3% | 32.6% | 22.5% | 47 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 30.4% | 36.4% | 23.8% | 23 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 51.2% | 28.9% | 20.0% | 41 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 40.6% | 22.6% | 18.5% | 32 |
| MFI cross 80SELL | 0.0% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 6 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 30.8% | 15.4% | 8.3% | 13 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 38.5% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 13 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=SPX. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: MFI cross 20 · SMA 50/200 golden cross · RSI(14) cross 30.
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.