ndx / What works on NDX
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on NDX, measured on daily bars (2024-08-27 → 2026-08-27, 502 bars, 314 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
Daily bars for NDX are loaded via Yahoo alias ^NDX; the symbol on the page stays NDX.
What works on NDX
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 80.0% | 60.0% | 100.0% | 5 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 100.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 42.9% | 61.5% | 100.0% | 14 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 33.3% | 50.0% | 100.0% | 3 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 58.1% | 76.7% | 84.6% | 32 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 57.9% | 72.2% | 87.5% | 19 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 53.3% | 57.1% | 84.6% | 15 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 50.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% | 6 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 47.4% | 55.6% | 64.7% | 19 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 50.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 10 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 40.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 10 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 25.6% | 34.1% | 27.0% | 43 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 36.8% | 26.3% | 27.8% | 20 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 40.0% | 28.2% | 21.6% | 40 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 41.7% | 25.0% | 16.7% | 12 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 36.7% | 24.1% | 21.4% | 30 |
| MFI cross 80SELL | 37.5% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 8 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 3 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 33.3% | 20.0% | 7.1% | 15 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=NDX. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: SMA 50/200 golden cross · RSI(14) cross 30 · MFI cross 20.
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.