hd / What works on HD
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on HD, measured on daily bars (2024-08-27 → 2026-08-27, 502 bars, 312 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
What works on HD
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 66.7% | 60.0% | 80.0% | 6 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 66.7% | 100.0% | 66.7% | 3 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 50.0% | 66.7% | 80.0% | 6 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 80.0% | 80.0% | 60.0% | 5 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 50.0% | 61.5% | 70.0% | 14 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 75.0% | 75.0% | 50.0% | 4 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 37.5% | 56.5% | 66.7% | 24 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 81.8% | 70.0% | 55.6% | 11 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 68.8% | 53.3% | 66.7% | 16 |
| MFI cross 80SELL | 66.7% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 3 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 80.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 5 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 66.7% | 66.7% | 44.4% | 9 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 37.9% | 46.4% | 62.5% | 29 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 47.1% | 56.2% | 53.3% | 17 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 45.8% | 50.0% | 60.9% | 24 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 46.2% | 53.8% | 56.0% | 26 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 31.7% | 50.0% | 58.8% | 41 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 66.7% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 12 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 47.2% | 47.2% | 57.1% | 37 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 35.3% | 47.1% | 50.0% | 17 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 2 |
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=HD. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: Squeeze fire (bearish) · ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong) · RSI(14) cross 70.
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.