bnd / What works on BND
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on BND, measured on daily bars (2024-08-27 → 2026-08-27, 502 bars, 318 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
What works on BND
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFI cross 80SELL | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 50.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 64.7% | 81.2% | 75.0% | 17 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 55.6% | 72.2% | 80.0% | 18 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 45.7% | 76.5% | 74.2% | 35 |
| ADX -DI/+DI cross (strong)SELL | 66.7% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 3 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 70.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 10 |
| ADX +DI/-DI cross (strong)BUY | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 44.0% | 66.7% | 71.4% | 25 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 50.0% | 58.3% | 70.0% | 13 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 60.0% | 40.0% | 75.0% | 6 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 33.3% | 55.6% | 62.5% | 9 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 60.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 5 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 60.6% | 48.5% | 36.7% | 33 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 45.5% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 23 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 50.0% | 0.0% | — | 2 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 30.8% | 30.8% | 36.4% | 13 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 52.9% | 37.5% | 20.7% | 34 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 52.9% | 29.4% | 25.0% | 17 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 40.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 5 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 50.0% | 33.3% | 20.6% | 43 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=BND. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: MFI cross 80 · SMA 50/200 golden cross · MACD bullish cross.
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.