tgt / What works on TGT
Historical hit rates for every rank-panel rule on TGT, measured on daily bars (2024-08-29 → 2026-08-28, 501 bars, 339 firings). Not a buy or sell list.
What works on TGT
| Rule | Win 5d | Win 1mo | Win 3mo | Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 50/200 golden crossBUY | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Squeeze fire (bearish)SELL | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 5 |
| RSI(14) cross 30BUY | 50.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | 6 |
| MACD bullish crossBUY | 56.0% | 64.0% | 45.5% | 25 |
| EMA 9/21 death crossSELL | 35.7% | 42.9% | 61.5% | 14 |
| BB upper band rejectSELL | 59.1% | 47.6% | 42.1% | 23 |
| Williams %R cross -80BUY | 58.1% | 51.6% | 46.7% | 31 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (overbought)SELL | 50.0% | 48.1% | 45.8% | 31 |
| SMA 50/200 death crossSELL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 1 |
| Williams %R cross -20SELL | 46.7% | 41.9% | 48.7% | 47 |
| CCI cross -100BUY | 41.7% | 50.0% | 45.8% | 24 |
| EMA 9/21 golden crossBUY | 73.3% | 46.7% | 35.7% | 15 |
| Stoch %K/%D cross (oversold)BUY | 42.9% | 42.9% | 45.0% | 21 |
| MACD bearish crossSELL | 45.8% | 37.5% | 47.6% | 24 |
| BB lower band bounceBUY | 40.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 10 |
| CCI cross 100SELL | 46.2% | 32.4% | 38.2% | 40 |
| Squeeze fire (bullish)BUY | 57.1% | 42.9% | 33.3% | 7 |
| MFI cross 80SELL | 66.7% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 3 |
| MFI cross 20BUY | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 3 |
| RSI(14) cross 70SELL | 28.6% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 8 |
Interactive chart with the same engine: /?symbol=TGT. Fresh triggers across mega-caps: /firing. Rule write-ups: SMA 50/200 golden cross · Squeeze fire (bearish) · RSI(14) cross 30.
Why it moved
TA on this site tells you which classic rule printed and whether it historically paid. It does not say why the stock moved. Options positioning is often why. SpotGamma maps that.
Optional: SpotGamma free tools. Nothing here is trade advice.
Honest caveats
- Past ≠ future. Everything here is a historical measurement on daily bars, not a prediction and not investment advice.
- No costs modeled. Forward returns are close-to-close with no commissions, slippage or borrow.
- Overlap bias. Signals that fire in clusters get credit for the same move more than once.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 firings is anecdote, not evidence.
Full method: help manual. Interactive chart: terminal.